Uploaded on 2015-12-15 by malogan

South Africa's energy flows are at risk, due to decisions made in the 1990s. The natural monopoly, Eskom, approached government with advice that it would be necessary to build more power stations to avoid energy shortages in the next 20 years. At that stage, there was a surplus of supply and there was planning to carve up Eskom into 6 units and the long-term strategy was rejected. The consequences of this poor decision-making are with us now, resulting in load-shedding, stunted economic growth and a generally adverse effect on the country's financial ratings. 1. FOSSIL FUEL UTILIZATION South Africa's energy requirements are currently predominantly satisfied by fossil fuels, especially coal, which is abundant. Coal fuelled stations are erected in close proximity to the coal mines that keep them running. Coal is even used to create synthetic fuel by Sasol (I assume this is shown as fuel production in the South AFrican Sankey diagram), so contributes to energy for the transport sector. While South Africa has an energy mix, ranging from one nuclear power station (Koeberg), some hydro (Ingula) and some renewable solar and windpower biofuels (produced and used mainly by large power users (LPUs))and some gas, the predominant fuel is coal, and will remain so for at least the next 20 years (2 coal-fired stations are under development, Medupi and Kusile). There are many other impacts of coal as a fuel, apart from CO2, such as management of the ash residue. South Africa is also an exporter and importer of energy (from Cahora Bassa in Mocambique-hydro power). South Africa also indirectly acts as an emitter of CO2 in other countries which import coal from South AFrica. Ironically, the real risk to South Africa from energy production is water consumption - Eskom and Sasol are the two largest users of water, and Eskom has predicted that there will be a crash in water supply by 2020. 2. Fossil fuels are used predominantly for transport, industry, and residential use, but are also used in other and non-energy sectors. 3. At first glance, the solution to reduce CO2 emissions might seem obvious - migrate to renewals, especially solar in a country with predominantly sunny days, and "clean" fuels such as nuclear. However, the problem lies not with fuel sources, so much as with policy and mind-set change. The concept of the end-user being able to sell back surplus power is far from implementation, cities such as Johannesburg make it illegal to move off the grid, and have no provision for upstream distribution-they are only implementing time of use charging now. New power business models must be devised once the smartgrid has been ideated. In light of the current power problems, I would like to see major metros, becoming responsible for some or all of their generation (this was the case in the past), but would look at options such as thorium mini-reactors. Solar is the obvious answer, but traditional cost justification makes solar an expensive option. I would bring in policy and incentives where end-users become resellers via use of heat pumps and solar panels, and would like to see this as high as 30% in ten year's time. However, the first action is to free up the market. (In reality, I would like to see energy becoming a form of currency rather than a product by the end of the next decade). ![High level process to free up the market][1] References Electricity Regulation Amendment Act no 28 of 2007 (South African Goverment Printer) Annual Integrated Report - Sasol 2014 Eskom Transmission Development Plan 2013-2030, Eskom, Megawatt park, Sunninghill Johannesburg [1]: https://edxuploads.s3.amazonaws.com/14501911884502313.png